# Level of Confidence

The purpose of this assignment is to develop students’ abilities to combine the knowledge of descriptive statistics covered in Weeks 1 and 2 and one-sample hypothesis testing to make managerial decisions. In this assignment, students will learn how statistical analysis is used in predicting an election winner in the first case. In the second case, students will conduct a hypothesis test to decide whether or not a shipping plan will be profitable.

Assignment Steps

Resources: Microsoft Excel®, Case Study Scenarios, SpeedX Payment Times

Develop a 700- to 1,050-word statistical analysis based on the Case Study Scenarios and SpeedX Payment Times.

Include answers to the following:

Case 1: Election Results

• Use 0.10 as the significance level (α).
• Conduct a one-sample hypothesis test to determine if the networks should announce at 8:01 P.M. the Republican candidate George W. Bush will win the state.

Case 2: SpeedX

• Use 0.10 and the significance level (α).
• Conduct a one-sample hypothesis test and determine if you can convince the CFO to conclude the plan will be profitable.

Format your assignment consistent with APA format.

Case 1: Predicting and Election Winner

Step 1: Create a null and alternative hypothesis

I find it always easier to create the hypothesis statements in words first:

Ho = (probability that) Bush wins less than or equal to 50% of the votes.

H1 = (probability that) Bush wins more than 50% of the votes.

Written statistically, the hypothesis statements will look like this:

Ho = p < 50%

H= p > 50%

Step 2: Identify the level of significance a = 0.10

Type I Error – Declare George Bush the winner when he wins less than or equal to 50% of the votes

Type II Error – Declare Bush the winner when he wins less than 50% of the votes

Which error is more serious for the network?

Step 3: Find the p-value

(confidence interval is 95%)

Step 4: Compare the p- value with a

Step 5: State your decision in the context of the problem.

Case 2: SpeedX:

Step 1: Write the null and alternate hypothesis

Ho = Self addressed envelope has a return rate greater than or equal to 22 days

H1 = Self addressed envelope has a return rate less than 22 days

Ho = u > 22 days

H1 = u < 22 days

Step 2: Identify the level of significance (a) = 0.10

Discuss the type I /type II error possibility and which is worse for the company.

Step 3: find the p value

Step 4: compare the p value with a

Step 5: State your decision in the context of the problem.

The hypothesis handout should help you with this assignment.

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