16:13 Least squares
Trend fitting and forecasting.
Question: Gross domestic product is a major indicator of a nation’s overall economic activity. It consists of personal consumption expenditures, gross domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures. The GDP(in billions of current dollars) for the United States from 1980 to 2008 is stored in file GDP.
A) Plot data B) Compute a linear trend forecasting equation and plot the trend line
C) What are your forecasts for 2009 and 2010
D) What conclusions can you reach concerning the trend in GDP
Year (x) GDP (y)
1980 2789.5 1981 3128.4
1982 3255 1983 3536.7
1984 3933.2 1985 4220.3
1986 4462.8 1987 4739.5
1988 5103.8 1989 5484.4
1990 5803.1 1991 5995.9
1992 6337.7 1993 6657.4
1994 7072.2 1995 7397.7
1996 7816.9 1997 8304.3
1998 8747 1999 9268.4
2000 9817 2001 10128
2002 10469.6 2003 10960.8
2004 11712.5 2005 12455.8
2006 13253.9 2007 13807.5
2008 14264.6
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